The negative outlook reflects dominant, mutually-reinforcing, downside risks from deeper stresses in the economy and financial system that could lead to a more severe and prolonged erosion in fiscal strength than Moody's currently projects, the agency said.
Moody's Investors Service has warned that India, along with the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are highly vulnerable to volatile food and energy prices in the Asia-Pacific region as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt supplies and raise the cost of agricultural products, especially cereals and vegetable oils, as well as fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. This is so because these countries have a higher weighting of energy and food prices in their consumer price index (CPI) baskets, Moody's said in its report released on Tuesday. The weighting of energy and food in overall Indian CPI stands at over 55 per cent.
Moody's on Thursday slashed India's growth estimate for the current year to 9.1 per cent, from 9.5 per cent earlier, saying high fuel and fertilizer import bill could limit the government's capital expenditure. In its 'Global Macro Outlook 2022-23 (March 2022 Update): Economic Growth will suffer as fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine builds' report, the rating agency said Russia's invasion of Ukraine has significantly altered the global economic backdrop through three main channels -- spike in commodities prices, risks to global economy from financial and business disruption and dent in sentiment due to heightened geopolitical risks. It said Russia is the only G-20 economy that will contract this year and forecast that its economy will shrink 7 per cent in 2022, and 3 per cent in 2023, down from projected growth of 2 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively, before the invasion of Ukraine.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
Moody believes Gill, Sudharsan can weather any storm as they "learnt to move through gears"
A recession is unlikely in the APAC region in the coming year, although the area will face headwinds from higher interest rates and slower global trade growth, Moody's Analytics said on Thursday. In its analysis titled 'APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift', Moody's said India is headed for slower growth next year more in line with its long-term potential. On the upside, inward investment and productivity gains in technology as well as in agriculture could accelerate growth.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, Nestle, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever and Mahindra & Mahindra were the biggest gainers. IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Power Grid and ITC were among the laggards.
Former Australia all-rounder Tom Moody is expected to apply for the high profile job of Indian team's head coach for a fourth time, following the conclusion of the upcoming T20 World Cup, according to a media report.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, HCL Tech and Adani Ports were the laggards. Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, State Bank of India and IndusInd Bank were among the gainers.
Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.3 per cent saying that the second wave of coronavirus infections hampers economic recovery and increases risk of longer-term scarring. Moody's, which has a 'Baa3' rating on India with a negative outlook, said obstacles to economic growth, high debt and weak financial system contrain sovereign credit profile. The US-based rating agency had in February forecast a 13.7 per cent economic growth for the current fiscal (April 2021-March 2022).
The improved outlook on the Government of India announced by rating agency Moody's might need to be viewed with some scepticism. There is no doubt the performance of the Indian economy has sharply improved from the deep trough it hit last year. But the ability of the second largest global ratings agency to assess an upside and downside before events make everyone wise about India has been dismal for a long time, as the chart shows.
Former Indian cricketer Sanjay Bangar spoke on who has the edge between Pakistan and England, he said, "I will probably back Pakistan because bowlers win tournaments and that is where Pakistan, with the kind of bowling attack that they have, I mean four quality quicks and they have the wrist spin, and if they require they also have the option of a left-arm spinner,"
Moody's has forecast that China would be the only G-20 country to post growth this year.
Petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased despite firming raw material costs because of upcoming general elections next year, Moody's Investors Service said. Three state-owned fuel retailers -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) -- which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, have kept petrol and diesel prices on freeze for a record 18 months in a row. This is despite the raw material (crude oil) cost surging last year, leading to heavy losses in first half of 2022-23 fiscal year before easing oil prices propelled them to profitability.
Moody's on Monday slashed India's growth forecast for 2020 to 5.4 per cent from 6.6 per cent projected earlier, on slower than expected economic recovery. In its update on Global Macro Outlook, Moody's Investors Service said India's economy has decelerated rapidly over the last 2 years and economic recovery is likely to be 'shallow'.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
As the largest producer of vaccines in the world, with 60 per cent of the global share, India is well-positioned to use its existing manufacturing capabilities to contribute to mass vaccine production and distribution needs for other countries in addition to meeting its domestic requirements, said Moody's.
Moody's on Thursday upped India's growth projection for the next financial year beginning April 1, to 13.7 per cent, from 10.8 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of normalisation of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccine. For current fiscal, the US-based rating agency expects the economy to contract 7 per cent, lower than its previous estimate of 10.6 per cent contraction.
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday said the high commodity prices and supply chain disruptions due to further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine crisis could expose about 42 per cent of rated Indian companies to significant risks. They are mainly in the oil and gas and automotive sectors. The impact may be seen under two scenarios: first, revised base line and second being downside economic scenarios incorporating a global recession and a more severe liquidity squeeze, it said. The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is impacting companies in Asia Pacific, adding to existing challenges from supply chain disruption and the coronavirus pandemic.
Australia head coach Andrew McDonald accused the Indian team of trying to 'intimidate' young batter Sam Konstas.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
Apart from supply chain disruptions, Moody's also expects consumption and investment to be affected and prices of oil and other commodities to remain around current lows until the end of June.
Stating that the economic costs of shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly, Moody's projected that all G-20 advanced economies would contract by 5.8 per cent in 2020.
While foreign currency rating was retained at Baa2 -- the second-lowest investment grade score -- Moody's also projected a fiscal deficit of 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product in the year through March 2020, a breach of the government's target of 3.3 per cent.
Moody's on Thursday raised India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2020 upwards to -8.9 per cent contraction from -9.6 per cent contraction forecast earlier. Similarly, India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2021 has been revised upwards to 8.6 per cent from 8.1 per cent projected earlier. The report released by Moody's Investors Service attributed the reason behind better growth to the falling of coronavirus cases in the country.
Global rating agency Moody's on Friday said that India's ratings may be downgraded if the government debt rises substantially, due to a lack of medium-term reforms and delay in privatization among others.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
Moody's has a 'Baa3' rating for India, with a positive outlook.
It expects Indian economy to grow by 6 per cent in 2013-14.
The veteran coach also said both teams would have to be tactfully aware of playing at the MCG.
Although, Moody's expects that global and domestic factors, including potential shocks in agriculture, could keep India's growth below trend for the next few quarters.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said India's rising vaccination rate, low interest rates and higher public spending drive the positive outlook for corporate sector.
India's economy is likely to grow by 12 per cent in 2021 following a 7.1 per cent contraction last year, as near-term prospects have turned more favourable, Moody's Analytics said. A stronger than expected December quarter GDP growth of 0.4 per cent following a 7.5 per cent contraction in the previous three months has turned India's near-term prospects more favourable, it said. Domestic and external demand has been on the mend since the easing of restrictions, which has led to improved manufacturing output in recent months.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Omicron variant of Covid-19 adds new uncertainties to the global economic outlook but much will depend on its speed of transmission, hospitalisation and death rates, and also the effectiveness of vaccines, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its commentary titled 'Much to Learn About Omicronast', Moody's Analytics said although the variant appears to spread "remarkably quickly", it will be at least two more weeks before more will be known about this new variant. "The Omicron variant of COVID-19 adds new measures of uncertainty to the outlook for the global economy, although it is too soon to adequately quantify that risk.
The revision was announced before Indian markets opened on Thursday.
India's fiscal deficit and inflation outlook could prevent any upgrades in the country's sovereign rating, even as the economy is headed for recovery
Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday lowered India's GDP growth forecast for the 2020 calendar year to 5.3 per cent, on coronavirus implications on the economy. Moody's had in February projected a 5.4 per cent real GDP growth for India in 2020. This too was a downgrade from 6.6 per cent earlier forecast.
The ties between India and the Maldives came under severe strain since Muizzu, known for his pro-China leanings, took charge of the top office in November.
